Blog #10 Coronavirus X
Coronavirus X: The Death Rate for Coronavirus is Falling and Will Continue to Fall
Folks, we are well into our first week of quarantining. I am honored to continue caring for patients. I want to be there in this time of need. Patients are asking me, “Aren’t you scared?” I am scared for us as a society. Right now, we are being driven by fear. We have to look at and understand what is the true story about this illness and that will help minimize the fear. My next few posts will try to lower our fear down to manageable levels by discussing therapies that work such as vitamin C.
We are continually pounded with media reports about every death from COVID-19 and every new case. Just think if every new influenza case and death was continually reported by mainstream media starting in December. By January of every year, we would be quivering in fear. I am scared for the people who are not working and wondering how they are going to pay their rent and feed their children. However, I am not scared of COVID-19. I do not mean to minimize the seriousness of this virus. It is extremely contagious. It can be particularly deadly to the old and sick. However, it is a flu-like virus that the vast majority— nearly 99% when all is said and done–will recover from. It is not Ebola or hemorrhagic fever. It is not killing or maiming children in droves. Yes, people will die from this. Perhaps a lot of them. COVID-19 affects primarily the elderly and those with chronic conditions. Keep in mind tens of thousands of US citizens die per year from influenza and pneumonia not caused by COVID-19—and these illnesses primarily affect the elderly and those with chronic conditions. These are the people we need to worry the most about and who need the most surveillance and care. And, they should all be taking their vitamins. Especially vitamin C.
Should we all quarantine now? We have no choice. Once the CDC fumbled away our chance to contain this illness it rapidly spread across America.
It did not have to be this way. On the homepage for the CDC it states, “CDC {is} working 24/7 to protect America from health and safety threats, both foreign and domestic.” Folks, the CDC must have taken a holiday from the end of December until the middle of March as WE DID NOT HAVE THE PROPER TEST KITS TO MONITOR AND CONTAIN THIS NOVEL CORONAVIRUS INFECTION EVEN THOUGH WE KNEW IT WAS COMING AND THE TEST KITS WERE AVAILABLE IN OTHER COUNTRIES!
Now, nearly three months into the coronavirus mess, US doctors can finally test for it. At least some of us can. I was told by Quest Lab on Thursday March 12, 2020—nearly three months after the first Chinese cases were reported–coronavirus test kits were available. Of course, that is after nearly three months of being unable to properly test many patients suffering flu-like symptoms when doctors in many other countries were able to. During this time, on an almost daily basis, I asked my lab if the coronavirus test was available and the answer was a consistent “no.”
The headline in the New York Times today (3.18.20) states, ”U.S. Lags in Testing, and Gaps in Data Aren’t Helping.” Out of all the major Western countries testing for coronavirus, the US is dead last—and dead last by a long margin. That means we have failed to gather crucial data about coronavirus—who was sick, who died and who recovered. The NYT article reports that the US has tested 125 people per million. South Korea has tested well over 5,000 per million. My blog post ‘Coronavirus VIII: Why Does S. Korea Have Lower Death Rate Compared to US?’ (1) described how S. Korea effectively managed the coronavirus infection much better than we have. How did they do this? They aggressively tested, treated, and quarantined infected individuals from the start of the crisis. That is the opposite of what the US CDC did. As I said in the previous blog post, the post-mortem of this crisis will be ugly for the CDC as well as for President Trump. The president initially downplayed the crisis then claimed anybody who wanted to be tested could get tested. Well, here we are, three months into the crisis and there are still not enough tests to go around.
Testing is important because we need the data to know how widespread the illness is and, more importantly, how deadly it is. Due to a lack of tests, the only people initially being tested were the hospitalized and the very ill. That skews the data to claim a higher mortality rate. Recall the average flu mortality rate is 0.1%. The initial US testing of coronavirus in the very ill revealed a death rate of approximately 2-4%. That is where the scare-mongering headlines claimed that coronavirus was 20-40x (2/0.1-4/0.1) more lethal than our usual influenza mortality rate.
Even though we still don’t have enough test kits now, we are testing many more than we did a few weeks ago. In the US, as of Wednesday, March 18, 2020, there are 7,700 confirmed cases and 118 deaths. That comes out to a 1.5% mortality rate which is still much higher than the annual influenza mortality rate but lower than the 2-4% rate a few weeks ago. As more and more tests are done, the number of positive cases will invariably rise which, in my opinion, should lower the death rate further. That is good news. That should calm some of the fear.
We will never have fully accurate rates because WE HAD A LACK OF TESTS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS OUTBREAK. Therefore the final mortality rate numbers will overstate the true rate. Having said that I predict the final numbers will show a mortality rate below 1%. It may be slightly higher than the annual flu mortality rate but it will be much lower than the alarming numbers the media have been promoting.
Final Thoughts:
I believe the final mortality rate for COVID-19 will be near the annual flu mortality rate. It may be slightly higher. That still means many will die, but the vast majority won’t. We need to be cautious and provide our body with the correct nutrients in order to help it withstand corona and other viral infections. Vitamins A, C, D and iodine can help as I have stated in previous posts. Intravenous nutrient therapies can help. Eating a healthy diet can help. Maintaining hydration can help. There are a lot of things you can do to minimize your chances of becoming a statistic in this crisis.
My next blog post will show you why I think COVID-19 will start to recede much earlier than predicted and why vitamin C and other nutrients should be prescribed for all coronavirus patients.
To All Our Health,
~DrB
David Brownstein, MD is a conventionally trained Board-Certified Family Physician with the additional overlay of holistic principles.
While Dr. Brownstein does not claim to have a cure for any illness, he does believe that we can enhance the individual’s immune system by supporting the ‘host’ & the terrain of the host. The human body is well designed and the immune system, when given the proper support, can optimally function.
Disclaimer: The information in this blog should not be used as medical advice. Any therapies that are discussed should be supervised under the guidance of your physician or licensed healthcare professional.
